OPINION: Gachagua’s Anti-Zoning Strategy Could Change Opposition Politics

By Cornelius Gateri, Lawyer

Kenyan political alliances have traditionally been built around compromise, negotiated positions and, at times, electoral zoning.

Parties within a coalition often agree to support one another in particular regions or constituencies to avoid splitting their vote.

The newly emerged Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) appears ready to challenge that model.

The party is pursuing an unconventional strategy: supporting a single opposition candidate for the presidency while allowing individual parties to compete against one another for other elective positions.

If sustained, the approach could change how opposition parties negotiate electoral competition ahead of the 2027 General Election.

That strategy was on display on Wednesday, August 26, as DCP stages a “Meet the People” rally in Kikuyu Town, Kiambu County, before the party’s leadership embarks on a diaspora tour of five major US cities.

The significance of the rally goes beyond the size of the crowd. It offers a glimpse into a broader political calculation: whether an opposition coalition can remain united at the presidential level while allowing its constituent parties to compete freely for parliamentary and county seats.

The anti-zoning gamble

DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua has rejected the conventional approach of coalition zoning.

Speaking to the media on August 25, Gachagua argued that the opposition could improve its chances in the 2027 elections by allowing several parties to field candidates for different elective positions.

He made an exception for the presidency, saying the opposition should ultimately settle on one candidate to face President William Ruto.

The approach represents a departure from traditional coalition politics, where allied parties may agree not to field candidates against one another in areas where one partner has a stronger political base.

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DCP’s proposed model instead favours open competition. The party has indicated that it intends to field candidates across wards, constituencies and counties rather than surrendering particular areas to coalition partners through negotiated zoning.

The political logic is straightforward: competition could encourage more candidates to mobilise voters and give parties an incentive to build their own grassroots networks.

But the strategy carries an obvious risk. If opposition parties field competing candidates in the same constituencies, they could divide the vote and inadvertently strengthen candidates from the ruling side.

That tension is likely to become one of the defining questions for the opposition as the 2027 election approaches.

The strategy also speaks to the constitutional requirement that political parties maintain a national character.

Article 91 of the Constitution requires registered political parties to have a national character and prohibits parties from being based on regional, ethnic, religious or linguistic considerations.

However, national reach cannot be reduced simply to the number of candidates a party fields. DCP will ultimately have to demonstrate that its organisational structure, membership and political activities reflect the national character required by law.

Why Kikuyu Rally Matters

Against that national strategy, the decision to hold a major rally in Kikuyu carries considerable political symbolism.

The town is in the political backyard of Kimani Ichung’wah, the National Assembly Majority Leader and a prominent figure in the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

For DCP, taking its mobilisation campaign into such territory is therefore about more than holding another public meeting.

It is an attempt to demonstrate that the party can build support outside the regions traditionally associated with its leadership.

The size and reception of the crowd inevitably become part of the political debate, although turnout at a single rally should not be treated as definitive evidence of a party’s electoral strength.

Still, a successful mobilisation effort in Kiambu could strengthen DCP’s negotiating position within the broader opposition.

A party that can demonstrate an independent grassroots base has greater leverage when negotiating electoral arrangements with other opposition parties.

That could become particularly important if parties such as Wiper and Jubilee continue to resist a fully centralised opposition structure.

The Coalition Dilemma

This is where DCP’s strategy becomes more complicated.

A coalition needs a degree of cooperation to avoid dividing votes, but individual parties also need room to grow. Zoning can protect existing political strongholds, but it can also prevent smaller or newer parties from building independent support.

DCP appears to be betting on the latter approach.

It argues that opposition parties should compete for seats while cooperating on the presidential race. Whether that model works will depend heavily on how voters respond.

In a first-past-the-post electoral system, multiple candidates from allied parties can produce unintended consequences.

Two opposition candidates may each command significant support but collectively lose to a ruling-party candidate because their votes are split.

On the other hand, allowing parties to compete could increase political mobilisation, attract new candidates and prevent coalitions from becoming little more than arrangements for distributing political positions among party leaders.

The DCP strategy therefore presents the opposition with a difficult choice: prioritise unity at every level, or maintain unity at the presidential level while allowing competition elsewhere.

The Battle Over Political Space

The Kikuyu rally has also drawn attention to how security agencies handle political gatherings.

DCP officials, including regional representatives Julia Wanjiru, Surveyor Stephen Kigathi Kionywe and lawyer Muchanga Kiragu, among others, called for the National Police Service to remain impartial and provide adequate security.

The demands follow an earlier rally in the area on April 11, during which opposition leaders alleged that police and disruptive groups used tear gas to disperse crowds.

The issue is significant because freedom of peaceful assembly is protected by Article 37 of the Constitution.

The Public Order Act provides the legal framework governing public gatherings and the responsibilities of authorities in maintaining public order.

For DCP, making police conduct part of the political conversation also allows the party to frame its mobilisation campaign within the wider debate over civic and political space ahead of the 2027 elections.

Any allegation of selective enforcement or political interference, however, should be supported by evidence rather than treated as fact.

A Strategy that Could Reshape the Opposition

DCP is effectively pursuing a two-level strategy.

At the presidential level, it supports the idea of a united opposition behind a single candidate.

At the parliamentary and county levels, however, it wants political parties to retain the freedom to compete against one another.

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That is a significant departure from the traditional coalition model.

The strategy could help DCP establish a nationwide political network, increase its bargaining power and give the party greater independence from established opposition players.

But it could also create serious problems if competing opposition candidates divide votes in closely contested constituencies.

DCP is making a political gamble: that an opposition movement does not necessarily need to look like a single electoral machine to defeat the ruling side.

The 2027 General Election will provide the real test. Until then, rallies such as the one in Kikuyu offer an early indication of whether DCP can turn its anti-zoning message into a credible national political organisation or whether competition among opposition parties will simply fragment the vote they hope to consolidate.

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A photo of Mr. Cornelius Gateri.
PHOTO/File