The death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga has left a deep hole in President William Ruto’s broad-based government and the ODM Party.

Raila died on October 15, 2025, while receiving treatment in Kochi, India.

Political analysts have outlined possible next moves for President Ruto and the future direction of the ODM Party.

Speaking to Hivileo, Political analyst Dr. Luchetu Likaka said many politicians should now be aware of their vulnerability moving forward.

He stated that elected leaders from the Luo Nyanza region and the experts in President Ruto’s cabinet will be the first people to be affected.

Likaka hinted that ODM members serving in the broad-based government are likely to hold on until 2027 before deciding their next move, noting that for now, they appear “orphaned.”

“The immediate impact will be felt by the Luo Nyanza MPs who thrived by his name, including technocrats in the broad-based government,” Likaka said.

How Raila Odinga’s Allies Might Survive

He explained that the new strategies by every politician will now determine who will survive and who will not because there’s no more hiding behind Raila’s back.

“The strategy of a fox and a lion will determine who will survive and who will not. The time to be the fox lies in the years Raila was alive and the transition period before shifting into the lion. It was the Stalin strategy to succeed Stalin,” said Likaka.

Additionally, Likaka said that the time has come for the youth to shape the country’s political systems and revive a culture of pure and clean leadership in Kenya.

“Youths will now play a big role in cleaning the country’s political systems, and if we remain sober as citizen,s pure clean leadership may rise from now,” Likaka added.

Also Read: Ruto’s Message to the Luo Community After Raila Odinga’s Passing

Election and Kenya Kwanza Govt

Further, he stated that Raila’s demise will also change the dynamics of elections in Kenya.

Likaka said elections will now heavily rely on strategies and not on political parties anymore, or on who is backing whom.

Besides, he said the Kenya Kwanza might use his absence to consolidate support, attract defectors, and redesign opposition strategy.

“Some of Raila’s support was personal, charismatic, rooted in his decades-long activism. It is uncertain whether his followers will transfer loyalty seamlessly to his successor,” he said.

Impact Opposition

Likaka said Raila’s demise is likely to destabilize the opposition.

He stated that the opposition must reorganize, act quickly, or face a sharp decline in their support.

“The opposition must reorganize quickly and smartly, or risk decline. The ruling side will likely try to capitalize. But Kenya’s political future will depend heavily on institutional resilience, emerging leaders, and how the public reacts,” he said.

Also Read: Ruto Enters ODM Political Debate After Raila Odinga’s Death

Ruto Inheriting Raila’s Backyard

On the other hand, Political Analyst Maimuna Mwidau said death is a natural transition that every human will pass through.

However,  she stated that after every death, there is a new life that arises, and this means it is a political transition time.

She said President Ruto stands a better chance of inheriting the legacy Raila has left behind.

“Through death comes new life. It’s a political transition time. Ruto stands to inherit what Baba left him with,” Mwidau wrote.

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Raila Odinga and other ODM members during the previous event. PHOTO/Standard