Kisii and ODM Deputy Party Leader Simba Arati publicly urged President William Ruto to rejoin the party and fill the leadership void left by late Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

There are also other political commentators and Kenyans who have urged the President to return to ODM.

Speaking during Raila’s burial service, Ruto said he would honour Raila’s legacy by ensuring ODM remains strong and united as Kenya heads toward the next election.

He stated that it was important to keep ODM intact, adding that he would allow a section of leaders to include it in opposition politics.

“What I will not allow, for the respect of Raila Odinga, and I will do my best, may God help me, is to let those who want to take ODM to go and gamble with it in the opposition to succeed. I want to tell you, we will respect ODM. We will support you to hold ODM together,” Ruto said.

Experts Opinion

Political analysts and Governance experts who spoke to Hivileo have weighed in on this debate.

Dr. Luchetu Likaka, Political Analyst and Governance Researcher, said the speculation about possible political realignments in the wake of Raila Odinga’s death reflects the fluid and transactional nature of Kenya’s political culture.

Likaka stated that such moments of leadership transition have often triggered reconfigurations as parties and leaders seek relevance, stability, and survival.

He noted that the possibility of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the ODM finding common ground is realistic.

Likaka said both parties may see the need for political accommodation to navigate post-Raila uncertainties and maintain national cohesion.

“ODM, without its formidable figurehead, faces an internal reorganization that could push it toward strategic partnerships, while UDA may view collaboration as a means to consolidate legitimacy across Raila’s traditional support bases, particularly in Nyanza and parts of the Coast,” he said.

Similarly, Political Analyst Maimuna Mwidau said reports of possible realignments after the passage of Raila are normal due to various dynamics at play and interests.

Maimuna pointed out that UDA and ODM have already joined forces when the ODM party leader seconded some of his key leaders to form the broad-based government.

She explained that what is left in the post-Raila era is the official alliance, merger, or coalition that will sustain their pact legally.

“President William Ruto is fully aware of the various legal options available to maintain the Alliance for the benefit of both parties come 2027 and beyond. This is also in keeping with the belief that Raila Odinga believed in multiparty democracy instead of going back to a Monolithic one-party system,” Maimuna said.

Dismas Mokua, a Political risk analyst, said political alliances will now emerge ahead of the next election due to various reasons.

Mokua said there are chances of President Ruto being ODM’s presidential candidate in 2027.

“The Kenyan political space is informed and influenced by many variables. Kenya will witness many permutations and combinations ahead of 2027. The probability does exist that President Ruto will be the ODM 2027 presidential candidate,” Mokua said.

Also Read: What Next for Ruto and ODM After the Death of Raila Odinga

Ruto Cannot Join ODM

On the contrary, Likaka said President Ruto’s rejoining ODM appears unlikely in the literal sense.

He stated the memories of the post-2007 Grand Coalition era and subsequent fallout between Ruto and Raila Odinga still shape the political psyche of both camps.

“Nevertheless, tactical engagement on select national issues, such as constitutional reforms, peacebuilding, or economic stabilization, cannot be ruled out. Kenyan politics has repeatedly shown that yesterday’s rivals can easily become tomorrow’s partners when circumstances demand it,” Dr. Likaka said.

Political Analyst Prof. Herman Manyora has explained that President Ruto should not join ODM.

He stated that the broad-based opposition will win the 2027 presidential election if Ruto disbands UDA and join ODM.

He also revealed that such a decision will chase some people and regions out of the ODM party.

“Ruto going to ODM will be the most counterproductive thing. It will hit them badly. Their opponents will work on them,” Manyora said.

ODM-UDA Alliance

He stated that a UDA-ODM combination for 2027 is a possibility since ODM fingerprints are all over the UDA rank and file.

Mokua said President Ruto, Prime CS  Musalia Mudavadi, and Senate Speaker Amason Kingi are all ODM graduates.

He also emphasized that ⁠ODM leaders indicated in black and white that they will either be in Government solo or form a coalition that will form Government

“ODM leadership and ODM experts in the Kenya Kwanza administration speeches during the Raila Odinga funeral point towards the status quo. Status quo is ODM supporting President Ruto to the hilt,” he said.

Also Read: Ruto Enters ODM Political Debate After Raila Odinga’s Death

Obstacles to ODM-UDA Alliance

However, the analyst stated that the path towards ODM-UDA cooperation would not be smooth.

Dr. Likaka said the Cooperation requires careful negotiation around ideology, leadership balance, and power-sharing structures.

He stated that the deep mistrust between the two formations, rooted in past political contests and divergent governance philosophies, remains a major obstacle.

“Several factors could drive or hinder such an alliance. On one hand, there are strong incentives for collaboration, calls for national unity, pressure to safeguard economic recovery, and the need to manage succession politics within ODM. On the other hand, personal ambitions, deep-seated mistrust, and skepticism among grassroots supporters may slow or even block such efforts,” Likaka said.

Maimuna also listed differences in shared ideology, personal interests of leaders, agreements on who takes what depending on party strength in parliament, senate, counties, and the popular vote as some of the factors that may hinder the alliance.

Mokua also stated that the alliance can be compromised if ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, join Siaya Governor James Orengo and his Kisumu counterpart Anyang’ Nyong’o in rocking the boat.

“However probability of mainstream brokering a party coup is almost zero. That the party rank moved fast in making Dr Oburu Odinga the acting party leader points to a future UDA-ODM permutation and combination,” he said.

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Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga shakes hands with President William Ruto after the two signed a coooperation agreement at KICC on March 7, 2025. PHOTO/Citizen.