Government Warns of Potential Food Crisis and Rising Prices

The Ministry of Agriculture has warned of drought, rising rice prices, and a looming food crisis.

In a statement on January 6, Agriculture CS Mutahi Kagwe said Kenya is edging closer to a food crisis as drought disrupts production, rice supply gaps widen, and prices begin to wobble.

Kagwe said that rice has become a key staple in urban and ASAL households.”

He noted that declining domestic production and erratic rainfall are fuelling market volatility and threatening a broader wave of food inflation that could also affect maize and other essential commodities.

“With rice now a key staple in urban and ASAL households, falling domestic output and erratic rainfall are already fuelling volatility and threatening a broader food inflation wave that could hit maize and other essentials,” Kagwe said.

Rice Consumption in Kenya

Kagwe said that Kenya produces less than 20% of the rice it consumes.”

He added that by early 2026, the rice deficit is projected to exceed 380,000 MT, with demand between January and June alone estimated at 750,000 MT.

“Kenya produces less than 20% of the rice it consumes. By early 2026, the deficit is projected to exceed 380,000MT, with demand between January and June alone estimated at 750,000MT,” he said.

He emphasized that local stocks cannot fill this gap.

Meanwhile, Kagwe said acute food insecurity in ASAL counties could surge from 1.8M to 3.5M people if interventions stall.

Also Read: Millions at Risk as Kenya Braces for 3-Month Food Shortage from October

Court Case Might Cause Food Crisis in Kenya

Kagwe has highlighted concerns over rice supply and prices amid falling domestic output and rising demand.

He noted that the High Court is considering a challenge to the Government’s plan to allow time-bound, duty-free rice imports to stabilise supply and prices.

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Kagwe added that the ruling, due on 29 January 2026, could have major effects on food prices, household budgets, and the constitutional right to food, especially at a time when delays risk turning climate stress into a full-blown hunger crisis.

“Against this backdrop, the High Court is considering a challenge to the Government’s move to allow time-bound, duty-free rice imports to stabilise supply and prices. The ruling, due on 29 January 2026, will carry real consequences for food prices, household budgets, and the constitutional right to food at a moment when delay risks turning climate stress into a full-blown hunger crisis,” Kagwe said.

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