Which Way for Kenya in 2027: Broad-Based Government or United Opposition?

By Tonny Ochere

Different political formations are gearing up for the task that lies ahead of them as next year’s elections approach.

What makes it interesting is how the united opposition, a team led by the impeached former deputy president, Rigathi Gachagua, and the former Vice President, Kalonzo Musyoka, is facing strong resistance in their efforts to woo votes from different regions in Kenya. Their motorcades are being stoned, they are being blocked from accessing social places like churches, and they have been teargassed, among other disruptions. Being firm and stoic is the only option left to them.

Gachagua, an orator, comical, and a very tough general, doesn’t give up easily on how he tackles the Kenya Kwanza brigade.

This is a faction driven by the aim of changing the status quo, as they claim on several occasions, do claim.

But are they really after changing the status quo or just after playing power politics, a funny phrase that is now being used by the current ODM party leader, Oburu Oginga, dubbed “ we want power”, which power? Power to amass wealth for the few ruling elites, forgetting about the common needs and grievances of the citizens?

United Opposition Flag Bearer Dilemma

Moreover, some of the Jubilee party members, under the united opposition umbrella, have been protesting online that Gachagua is a saboteur to the political experience that their deputy party leader, Fred Matiangi, gets on the ground when they hold their political rallies.

When it comes to choosing their flag bearer, it will be a nightmare to them since almost all of them have ambitions to become president.

These reasons may derail their pre-election agreements ahead of next year’s elections.

What Kenya Needs

Kenya needs a renaissance. This can only be achieved by relying on a faction that is truly driven by an aim to make the country’s leadership great.

Take a look at the pact that is there between UDA and ODM, a pact that led to the formation of a broad-based government arrangement, which consequently resulted in the appointment of John Mbadi, Opiyo Wandayi, Wycliff Oparanya, and Hassan Joho, to the ministries of Finance, Energy, Cooperatives, and Mining, respectively, to Ruto’s administration.

This was a calculated move to strategize for next year’s elections. There has always been a feeling that this group of donated ODM “experts”, has instructions from the presidency to ensure that votes from their regions are amassed to one basket.

However, as government appointees, there may be policies and frameworks that bar them from engaging actively in politics, which they don’t even adhere to.

Defiance is the order of the day just because of protection from the presidency. Will they really deliver votes from their regions to Ruto?

Take, for example, Wycliff Oparanya from western Kenya, a region that has always been disunited when it comes to elections. He does not have the aura to control it.

‘Tawe movement’ by the governor of Trans Nzoia County, George Natembeya,  has a massive following that will make it impossible for Western Kenya residents to rally behind Ruto’s coalition.

Also Read: Natembeya Says He Cannot Support Gachagua for President in 2027

Can ODM Really be a Factor?

ODM, for example, is in a state of quagmire. A faction led by the current party leader, Dr. Oburu Oginga, feels that by being in the broad-based government arrangement with President Ruto’s UDA, their party will or must nominate a deputy president, who will deputize Ruto in next year’s election.  A topic that has been sparking debates all over the country.

On the other hand, the other faction led by the embattled former Secretary General, Edwin Sifuna, has a different approach when it comes to what ODM has always been known for; that is, going for the top-most elective post in the land, having a presidential candidate.

What now lies ahead for ODM is the absolute confusion that will ultimately cost them when it comes to the number of MPs, senators, governors, and even the number of MCAs that they may get just because of the decline in its popularity, a factor which will have been contributed by the internal wrangles in its leadership.

Also Read: OPINION: Why Kenyan Indians Must Step Into Politics Ahead of 2027

Mountain Kenya Politics

The Mountain brigade, led by the deputy president Kithure Kindiki, has also started coming out strongly to popularize his political might in different regions of the mountain.

A scheme is being used to send signals to the broad-based arrangement faction that, despite ODM having an aim to take over his position in next year’s election, it is not going to be a walk in the park decision.

Votes from the mountain have always had a tremendous impact on the faction that the mountain usually supports.

If Ruto picks a running mate from ODM, this may shift the political landscape of the Luo community, and he may get many votes from them.

Consequently, this may affect him to a greater extent on the support he may get from the mountain.

Going by what CS Ruku said some time back, as a loyal lieutenant to Kindiki, he affirmed that ODM may only secure the deputy president’s post come 2032’s election.

To some, this is a scheme to sabotage the broad-based arrangement, while to others, he may have just been right, considering the divisions being experienced in ODM that may derail coalition agreements.

All eyes are on what is ahead in matters of coalition arrangements ahead of 2027’s election.

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IEBC Chairperson Erastus Ethekon In A Past Event. PHOTO/ NTV