Why Kenya Experience Temperature Anomalies and Poor Rainfall Distribution

Kenya saw widespread temperature anomalies and uneven rainfall distribution in the course of 2025, according to a new report by the Kenya Meteorological Department.

The report, contained in the “State of the Climate in Kenya 2025,” shows that Kenya saw a year filled with warming and uneven rainfall distribution in the course of 2025.

The report says, “This section describes observed climatic changes in the year 2025 with respect to the climatological period 1991-2020. This section also describes the observed behavior and changes in annual, monthly, and seasonal rainfall and temperatures.”

According to the report, “The country experienced widespread positive temperature anomalies relative to the 1991-2020 mean temperature, indicating that 2025 was warmer across the country. Stronger warming signals are visible over parts of central, northern, and eastern Kenya. No large-scale negative anomaly regions are evident.”

Rising Temperatures and Long-Term Warming Trend

The report points out that “the national area-weighted mean anomaly for 2025 is +0.88°C,” which emphasizes the degree to which the climate is warming.

Yet, “it was the 7th warmest year out of 36 years (since 1991–2025) and cooler than the warmest year (2024) by ~0.30°C,” thereby confirming that, “2024 was the warmest year on record.”

Long-term data reveal that “Kenya’s annual temperature has shown a consistent warming trend over the period 1991–2025,” and “the warming rate was estimated to be +0.22°C/decade.”

The report also points out that “the most pronounced warming trends are seen after the year 2005, with several years exceeding +0.1°C.”

From the monthly analysis, temperatures have been fluctuating but high.

For instance, “There was a mildly above-normal start to the year with slightly warm anomalies of 0-1°C over much of the country in January,” while “pre-MAM heat conditions intensified in February with anomalies exceeding +1.5°C, particularly in western Kenya.”

In the March to May season, temperatures have been warming, though in varying places in the country, such that “near-normal to slightly cool anomalies dominated the country in April, possibly due to rainfall and cloud cover.”

Nevertheless, “there was gradual warming towards the end of MAM (in May) in much of the country.”

In the June to August season, temperatures have remained high, such that there was “fairly uniform warming anomalies of between +0.5 and >+1.5°C, likely impacting agriculture and increased water demand.”

Towards the end of the year, strong warming was experienced, such that “strong and persistent warming experienced from October to December (anomalies +1 to +1.5°C)” culminated in, “December 2025 being the warmest month.”

Also Read: Kenya Met Names 6 Regions to Receive Heavy Rainfall Over the Next Five Days

Poor Rainfall Distribution in Different Regions

The rainfall pattern in 2025 was equally worrying.

According to the report, “rainfall distribution in space and time was generally poor throughout the year, with stark contrasts between regions.”

While “the western and central highlands experienced above-normal rainfall, most other regions saw drier-than-average conditions,” KMD added.

The extreme rainfall analysis reveals that “high rainfall was observed in the last week of March and last week of April,” but, “the period between the last week of May to the third week of October was particularly dry.”

The report reveals that “early-season rainfall was followed by extended dry spells,” but “in some western and central regions, heavy rainfall events were concentrated within short periods.”

Even though “MAM season began earlier than expected in several regions, with onset occurring in mid-March,” there was a delay in places like Mandera.

In addition, “cessation of the MAM 2025 rains was earlier than normal across some parts of northeastern and southeastern Kenya.”

Also Read: Kenya Met Explains Cause of Current Heavy Rains and Floods

Seasonal Variability and Regional Disparities

During the June-August season, it was recorded that “western and coastal parts of the country and a few areas over the central highlands, including Nairobi County, received near to above average rainfall,” while “the rest of the country experienced mainly dry weather conditions.”

The October-December season was a poor season, with the following record: “the months of Sep, Oct, Nov and Dec saw a poor distribution in space and time.”

More specifically, “October and December were characterized by long dry spells and uneven rainfall, significantly reducing effective moisture availability.”

Even though “November showed relatively improved rainfall distribution over western Kenya,” the other regions performed dismally, with “suppressed rainfall dominating the north-eastern region, north-western areas, the coastal strip, and south-eastern lowlands.”

The report also indicates that there are huge inequalities, as “Msabaha, Wajir, Marsabit, Lamu, and Mandera received less than 30% of their OND long-term mean,” whereas “Kitui is the only station that received above average rainfall at 133.6%.”

Regarding the extremes, it is stated that “the highest amount of rainfall, 643.1mm, was recorded in Nyaroya station in Migori County,” whereas “Mandera received the least amount of rainfall at 7.6mm.”

Overall, the report highlights that Kenya’s climate in 2025 was characterized by “prolonged dry spells and isolated storms,” as is the concern regarding climate variability.

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Kenya Met Boss Edward Muriuki speaking at past event. PHOTO/KNA