Why Sugar Prices Will Hold Despite Production Drop

The Kenya Sugar Board (KSB) has broken its silence on rising concerns over sugar prices, assuring Kenyans that there will be no price hikes or shortages despite a significant drop in domestic sugar production in 2025.

In a statement dated January 22, 2026, KSB CEO Jude Chesire addressed growing concerns sparked by Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) indicators, stating there is no cause for panic or speculative buying.

The KNBS data revealed that national sugar production experienced a 25% drop, falling from a historic high of 815,000 metric tonnes (MT) in 2024 to 613,000 MT in 2025. This output covered only 61 per cent of the national demand, which currently stands at 1.2 million MT.

Govt Explains Reasons for Lower Sugar Production in 2025

According to the KSB, the reduced output was not a failure of the sector but a result of a transition year defined by three main factors:

Cane Maturity Profiles: Following a massive harvest in 2024, much of the cane in 2025 was still in developmental stages. To protect future earnings for farmers, seven sugar factories in the Lower and Upper Western regions were temporarily closed to allow crops to reach optimal sucrose content.
Infrastructure Rehabilitation: Four state-owned factories were closed to facilitate a KSh 12.5 billion renovation and leasing program to private investors. Additionally, Kwale Sugar remained non-operational throughout 2025.

Also Read: Kenya Sugar Board Orders Registration of Sugar Repackers

Adverse Weather: Persistent dry spells starting in late 2025 have slowed cane development and reduced the tonnage produced per hectare.

Why Sugar Prices Are Not Rising

Despite these supply challenges, the government stated it has implemented market stabilisation measures to protect consumers from artificial shortages and price hikes. These measures ensure that sugar remains available and that prices stay predictable even as the country navigates the current production cycle.

The KSB stressed that the industry is currently being rebuilt for long-term sustainability. A KSh 1.2 billion Sugar Development Levy is currently being utilised to accelerate cane development in 2026, which includes the introduction of early-maturing varieties and the expansion of cultivation areas.

The government maintains that the current challenges are temporary and part of a major reform phase.

Also Read: CS Mutua Defends Sugar Sector Layoffs Before Senate Committee

With millions of tonnes of cane already in the ground, the KSB projects that harvesting and milling will resume strongly by October-November 2026, marking a sustained rebound for the domestic industry.

“The reforms are permanent. The assurance to Kenyans is clear: sugar supply will remain stable as the industry completes its recovery,” said KSB.

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