Escalating Rivalries And The Risk Of Political Destabilisation

By Dr Luchetu Likaka

The intensifying political rift between William Ruto and Rigathi Gachagua is steadily evolving from an internal power contest into a broader governance and security concern with far-reaching national implications.

What initially appeared as a struggle over influence and political succession has now taken on a more complex character, marked by public confrontation, erosion of coalition cohesion, and the gradual spillover of tensions into the public sphere.

Recent political developments, including the openly defiant posture of John Methu toward the presidency, underscore a significant shift in Kenya’s political culture.

Shifting Political Culture and Rising Dissent

Such expressions of dissent, delivered in highly charged public forums, signal a weakening of internal political discipline and the emergence of competing centers of legitimacy.

At the same time, messaging from actors aligned with Gachagua increasingly frames the conflict in terms of regional marginalization, particularly within the Mount Kenya bloc, thereby introducing a layer of identity-based mobilization that heightens the stakes of the dispute.

This evolving rhetoric is now being mirrored by troubling developments on the ground. Reports of road barricades and localized disruptions in areas such as Kikuyu point to the early stages of grassroots mobilization around political grievances.

More concerning is the reported attack on Godfrey Osotsi in Kisumu, an incident that illustrates the growing normalization of political intolerance and the willingness of some actors to resort to coercive means.

While such events may still be episodic, they are indicative of a deteriorating political environment in which contestation is no longer confined to institutional or rhetorical spaces.

Kenya’s Fragile Pre-Escalation Phase

From a political and governance analysis perspective, these developments suggest that Kenya is entering a fragile pre-escalation phase.

The convergence of elite fragmentation, increasingly ethnicized narratives, and localized manifestations of unrest reflects patterns that have historically preceded periods of instability.

Although Kenya’s institutional framework has strengthened over time, the current trajectory reveals gaps in the capacity of political actors to manage disputes within constitutional and normative bounds.

The situation bears uncomfortable parallels to the early warning signals observed prior to the 2007–2008 Post-Election Violence, particularly in the way political competition is beginning to intersect with identity and grievance-based narratives.

However, the present context is also shaped by a more vigilant civil society, a more assertive media environment, and a population that is increasingly aware of the costs of political violence.

These factors may serve as mitigating influences, but they are not sufficient on their own to offset sustained elite-driven polarization.

Also Read: How Kenya and Africa Can Position Themselves as Global Security Players Amid Shifting Geopolitics

Rising Polarization and Governance Risks

Looking ahead, the most probable trajectory in the short to medium term is one of sustained political polarization, characterized by heightened rhetoric, periodic localized unrest, and a gradual erosion of public trust in governance institutions.

If the current dynamics persist, there is a credible risk that isolated incidents such as attacks on political figures or community-level disruptions could accumulate and interact in ways that trigger broader instability, particularly as the country moves closer to the next electoral cycle.

The central challenge for Kenya is not merely the existence of political disagreement, but the manner in which it is being articulated and mobilized.

Identity Politics and Escalation Risks

When elite conflicts are framed through the lens of identity and exclusion, they acquire a resonance that extends far beyond the immediate actors involved.

Without deliberate efforts to de-escalate tensions, reinforce institutional mediation, and discourage inflammatory rhetoric, the country risks entering a prolonged period of political fragility marked by episodic violence and constrained governance outcomes.

The proposal to establish a specialized anti-gangs unit within the police service may appear, at face value, to be a decisive institutional response to rising criminal violence.

However, such an intervention risks being largely cosmetic if it fails to confront the deeper political economy that sustains gang activity.

In many instances, gangs are neither autonomous nor purely criminal enterprises; they are embedded within networks of political patronage, often mobilized during electoral cycles or moments of political contestation.

Also Read: Plucked and Promised: Kenya’s Politics of Baiting and Selection Ahead of 2027

Structural Challenges and Political Accountability

This raises a fundamental concern: the same state that purports to combat gangs is, at times, complicit in their creation, financing, or protection through political actors and rogue operatives.

Without addressing this structural contradiction, an anti-gangs unit is unlikely to serve as an effective deterrent.

Instead, it may become another instrument selectively deployed against politically inconvenient groups while shielding those aligned with powerful interests.

This selective enforcement undermines public trust, weakens the rule of law, and perpetuates cycles of violence.

A sustainable solution, therefore, requires more than tactical policing reforms; it demands political accountability, disruption of patronage networks, and a clear separation between state authority and criminal enterprise.

Without these, the establishment of such a unit risks reinforcing the very problem it seeks to eliminate rather than resolving it.

Dr Luchetu Likaka is a Governance and Security Consultant and can be reached at luchetu@gmail.com

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Dr. Luchetu Likaka, PhD, is a Distinguished Consultant Criminologist and Sociologist, boasting over 15 years of Experience in the Field. PHOTO/ Luchetu Likaka.