Manufactured Chaos or Selective Policing? Why the IEBC Must Be Careful Not to Tilt the Field

By Dr. Luchetu Likaka

The recent remarks by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) chair, echoed by findings from the Directorate of Criminal Investigations (DCI), present a troubling narrative: that politicians are increasingly engineering violence at their own events for sympathy, visibility, or strategic advantage.

On the surface, this appears like a sober warning ahead of 2027. But scratch deeper, and it raises a far more uncomfortable question: who benefits from this framing?

There is no doubt that political actors across the divide, both those aligned to government and those in opposition, have, at times, flirted with the dangerous game of mobilizing “goons” to disrupt rivals or dramatize their own victimhood.

That reality is not new in Kenya’s electoral history.

However, the IEBC chair’s sweeping posture risks flattening a complex problem into a convenient narrative that can be selectively applied. And that is where the danger lies.

IEBC Disqualifying Candidates to ‘Maintain Order’

By emphasizing that politicians may be sponsoring their own disruptions, the Commission introduces a subtle but powerful justification for disqualifying or restricting candidates under the guise of maintaining order.

In a politically charged environment, such discretion can easily morph into a tool of exclusion.

It does not take much imagination to see how certain aspirants, particularly those perceived as disruptive to the status quo, could be locked out on allegations that are difficult to independently verify.

Also Read: IEBC Reforms Ahead of 2027: Restoring Credibility or Redrawing Kenya’s Political Battleground?

The incident involving Rigathi Gachagua’s convoy being blocked by goons illustrates the ambiguity.

Was it an externally orchestrated disruption? An internally engineered spectacle? Or a mix of both? The truth, in many of these cases, sits in a grey zone.

Yet policy responses are often black and white such as punish, bar, or restrict.

Use of Hired Goons

Equally important is the uncomfortable truth that the use of hired disruptors is not the preserve of any one political camp.

Both government-aligned figures and opposition politicians have, at different times, been linked directly or indirectly to such tactics.

Singling out “politicians” in general without naming systemic enablers like weak enforcement, politicized policing, and local patronage networks risks obscuring accountability rather than strengthening it.

Also Read: OPINION: Quail Eggs, Deci, and the Cost of Manufactured Hope

The Commission Must Remain Fair

The IEBC must resist the temptation to appear decisive at the expense of fairness.

Electoral integrity is not just about preventing violence; it is also about ensuring a level playing field where rules are applied transparently and consistently.

If the Commission’s warnings evolve into discretionary crackdowns, it could unintentionally (or otherwise) shape the electoral field long before voters have their say.

My Suggestion and Solution

Kenya does not lack laws to deal with political violence. What it has historically struggled with is consistent, impartial enforcement.

The solution, therefore, is not rhetorical escalation, but institutional discipline.

Investigations must be evidence-based, prosecutions must be even-handed, and sanctions must be insulated from political pressure.

Otherwise, what is framed as a crackdown on chaos may quietly become a strategy of control, one where the loudest casualties are not goons, but democracy itself.

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Dr. Luchetu Likaka PhD is a Distinguished Consultant Criminologist and Sociologist, Boasting over 15 years of Experience in the Field. PHOTO/ Luchetu Likaka