What to Expect: Kenya Met Publishes May Weather Forecast

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has released its weather outlook for May 2026, projecting mixed rainfall patterns across the country with early heavy rains expected to ease as the month progresses.

In its forecast published on Friday, May 1, KMD indicated that several regions, including the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, the Coast, and Northwestern Kenya, are likely to receive near-average rainfall.

However, the Southeastern Lowlands and much of Northeastern Kenya are expected to record near-average to below-average rainfall.

According to the department, rainfall is likely to intensify during the first week of May due to the influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is forecast to be in a favourable phase. This enhanced rainfall may extend into the second week in some areas before subsiding, with depressed rainfall expected in the latter half of the month.

Kenya Met Highlights Regional Outlook

In the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin and parts of the Rift Valley, including counties such as Nandi, Kakamega, Kisumu, Narok and Uasin Gishu, rainfall is expected to remain near average, with heavy downpours likely during the first half of the month.

Northwestern counties of Turkana and Samburu are also projected to experience near-average rainfall, alongside occasional heavy rains in early May.

Also Read: Kenya Met Lists Areas Expected to Receive Heavy Rainfall in Early May Amid Flooding Concerns

For the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, covering areas such as Nyeri, Kiambu, Murang’a and Nairobi, near-average rainfall is expected.

However, eastern parts of Meru, Embu and Tharaka-Nithi may experience reduced rainfall levels. Heavy rainfall episodes are still likely in early May.

In Northeastern Kenya, rainfall is forecast to range from near-average to above-average in Mandera and the northern parts of Wajir and Marsabit, while the rest of the region may receive near-average to below-average rainfall.

The Southeastern Lowlands, including Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado and Taita Taveta, are expected to experience generally lower rainfall, although isolated heavy storms may occur in the first half of May.

At the Coast, including Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale and Lamu, near-average rainfall is projected, with occasional heavy rains early in the month.

Impact on Key Sectors

KMD has warned that continued rainfall in highland and lake basin regions may worsen flooding, waterlogging and soil erosion, posing risks to agriculture.

Also Read: Kenya Met Warns of Heavy Rainfall and Landslides in Late April

Crops in these areas could suffer physical damage and nutrient loss, while regions with less rainfall may face uneven soil moisture, affecting crop growth.

Water resources are also expected to come under pressure, with rivers, dams and drainage systems likely to experience increased inflows. The department cautioned that the first week of May poses a high risk of flash floods and river overflows, particularly in low-lying areas.

Transport and infrastructure could face disruptions due to damaged roads, flooded underpasses and impassable routes, especially in areas already affected by heavy April rains.

Public health risks are also expected to rise, with wet conditions creating a conducive environment for water-borne diseases such as cholera and malaria, particularly in flood-prone regions.

KMD further warned that disaster response systems could remain strained as the country faces continued risks of floods, landslides and displacement, especially in vulnerable areas during periods of intense rainfall.

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