After Raila: ODM at a Crossroads and Kenya at a Political Tipping Point

By Tonny Ochere, B.Ed, Kenyatta University

Since the demise of the former Kenya’s prime minister Rt. Hon. Raila Amollo Odinga, the country’s political conversation has taken a totally different trajectory, with the largest political party, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), becoming a ‘casualty’ of the tsunami wave that is currently making these political arrangements.

Before his demise, the former prime minister entered into the broad based arrangement cum post-election coalition with the president Dr. William Ruto; however, even with this, majority of the prominent orange leaders, greatly criticized it arguing that it was against the ethics that drive their party and that the president had not honored the rights of the youth, that were killed during the 2024’s June finance bill protests.

Nevertheless, the suggestions that had been drafted and discussed under the NADCO committee had not been put into implementation, thus making them uneasy that if he couldn’t implement the report to its fullness, how sure was the president going to implement the 10-point agenda that had been crafted by the ODM technocrats and the UDA’s representatives?

Just after the death of Raila, different factions have emerged in ODM.

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One faction that heeds the current party leader, Dr. Oburu Oginga and the other faction pays homage to the party’s secretary general Edwin Sifuna, et. al. The party should listen to the silent majority.

ODM needs an energetic leadership that is able to drive its agenda to the core as opposed to being rigid to what the majority wants; however, this perspective doesn’t criticize the elderly taking leadership positions in the party. In fact, they are crucial in matters of decision-making and how things ought to be done, in regard to the experience that they have.

They should just be playing advisory roles. On matters of energy, you witnessed just recently when the current ODM party leader and his brigade had a rally in Kibra, crowd management was very poor, and speakers were scrambling to be on the stage and demanding to talk at the same time. It was ironic how the late former prime minister organized his whole troop.

From his ‘haya…hayaa….hayaaaa’ signature tune and how he controlled the crowd, many people loved and adored it. Raila did not have to plan for a rally two or three weeks prior; his arrival at the scene was the rally itself. Crowds pulled themselves in large numbers once he made stops at any town or area within the country.

Truly, filling Raila’s shoes is posing as a complicated task that no other leader is able to fill. A week later, after Oburu’s ‘triumphant’ entry to Kibra, Raila’s daughter, Winnie, and Junior, also had a rally just after they had a church service in Kibra; they had an organic crowd that had been pulled by the rumor of them being around.

Winnie affirmed that, with the current political landscape in Kenya, where every politician wants to be like Baba, Baba’s style of leadership cannot be copy pasted.

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Could there be a looming rift in Odinga’s family since it seems like Raila’s kids have divergent opinions from their uncle Oburu? Was Winnie’s and Junior’s outcry during Kibra’s rally a factor in their mum’s appointment as the permanent representative to UNEP by the head of state? Or is it just out of goodwill to reward the longstanding and outstanding contributions of her late husband to the country?

Is it a strategy to ‘make’ Luos and ODM sympathizers happy that one of their own is winning? Or is it just an idea for Winnie and Junior now not to focus on their peers, Sifuna and Babu’s demand for a revitalized ODM? This aside, the other day, the former deputy chief of staff in the office of the president, Eliud Owalo, announced his 2027 presidential bid.

Many people are arguing that he is being used to divide the Luo vote ahead of the 2027 election and to make the Luo shaky, an idea that has flopped even before its execution. In Dholuo, ‘owalo’ means ‘s/he is joking’, could it be a coincidence to Eliud’s 2027 ambition?

All eyes on his moves! The country needs a renaissance. Check on the so-called United Opposition. Just a cabal of tribal leaders aligned together, having almost the same ideologies to liberate Kenya’s economy, but are they genuinely interested in that? Creating employment opportunities for the youth, markets for exports, developing industries, and having a peaceful Kenya?

The answer is obvious. The impeached former deputy president, Mr. Rigathi Gachagua, while still in power, focused on shareholding shenanigans. A subject that sparked debates all over the country. Those who were opposed to him had to be subjected to harassment by the police. The late former prime minister almost became a fatality during the 2023 opposition protests.

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Kalonzo Musyoka, a sober-minded guy, soft-spoken, but his track is questionable. Fred Matiangi, former Cabinet Secretary for Interior, a guy who made many men, women and children lose their lives by being shot or being murdered, and some were even thrown away in the River Yala.

Martha Karua, former Justice Minister in Kabaki’s administration, former running mate to the late Raila Odinga in 2022 Azimio Coalition, yet she had zero influence even in her own polling station, where she barely secured two hundred votes for Raila.

All these are just people who are interested in the continuation of their luxurious lifestyles and to protect their own respective interests in the pretext of fighting for the rights of Kenyans. It is just a hoax and hogwash. Kenya needs a leadership structure that puts the interests of citizens first before their own interests.

A country where every citizen is entitled to job opportunities, not where even TSC letters are being dished out by politicians in rallies and churches, where intern teachers are fairly paid, where PSC internship opportunities are given fairly to graduates, not to those with tall relatives.

In short, a country where there is equity, equality and transparency on how things are done in all organs of the government, from the executive, judiciary, to even the parliament. This should also be emulated and incorporated in county governments, too.

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Having a divergent opinion to an MP, governor, senator, women representative, or even a member of the county assembly, should not be an avenue for a leader to subject such an individual to harassment and threats. The right to the freedom of expression should be adhered to, taking into consideration its limitations too.

A dream by the president to make Kenya, Singapore, will be realized when he reorganizes his troops and serves all Kenyans without focusing on their political stands, perspectives, parties’ affiliations, regions where they come from, their religion, races and protecting their rights as envisaged in the 2010 Kenyan Constitution.

All these significant developments shall impact the political landscape of the country ahead of next year’s election.

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