Political analysts have argued that the by-elections tested the strength of President William Ruto, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.

The broad-based government faced off with the United Opposition in nearly all the contests.

The UDA party won the Baringo senatorial seat, as well as the Malava, Mbeere North, and Banissa parliamentary seats.

ODM secured victories in Ugunja, Kasipul, and Magarini, leaving the United Opposition without a single parliamentary win.

However, Gachagua’s DCP party managed to win three MCAs elections in  Narok Township, Kariobangi North, and Kisa East wards.

Analysts Predictiions After By-Elections

Speaking to Hivileo, Political analyst Maimuna Mwidau said election results reveal the working relationship of the broad-based government is working very well to achieve a win-win situation.

Mwidau said the UDA and ODM parties have coordinated their efforts well and achieved and sustained their parliamentary strength.

“Therefore, the mood towards 2027 is that working together and respecting each other’s turf is the better option for a winning formula for their union,” Mwidau said.

Dr. Luchetu Likaka, a political analyst and governance expert, said the by-election results reveal a country that is politically energized but also deeply frustrated.

He stated that voters are increasingly restless due to economic pressures, governance concerns, and declining faith in political promises.

However, he pointed out that close winning margins indicate that neither of the two coalitions enjoys huge support, hence the 2027 elections will be a tight race.

“The tight margins show that no coalition enjoys overwhelming national support, making 2027 a highly competitive contest that will be determined by issues, messaging discipline, and the ability to connect with ordinary citizens,” Dr. Likaka said.

Advice to Ruto

Maimuna said Ruto, Kalonzo, and Gachaua should not take these wins for granted.

She stated that some results were a close call, while in others, there is substantial support for opposition parties.

According to Dr. Likaka, President Ruto must urgently rethink his approach, as his path to a 2027 victory is far from assured.

He said the President needs to read the national mood carefully and adopt a more humble, responsive, and unifying strategy.

“For President Ruto, the lesson is to recalibrate urgently and avoid assuming that victory in 2027 is guaranteed. The stakes are extremely high, and the economic mood demands humility, responsiveness, and a more unifying tone,” he said.

Also Read: What Next for Ruto and ODM After the Death of Raila Odinga

How About Kalonzo?

Maimuna said Kalonzo must rally his team and prepare for 2027 with the precision of a sharpshooter.

She emphasized that the Wiper leader needs to ensure he does not miss his ultimate target of becoming the next President.

“Kalonzo needs to pull his troops together and prepare for 2027 with the precision of a sharpshooter so that he does not miss the target 2027 of becoming the next President,” Maimuna said.

Dr. Likaka said Kalonzo Musyoka should channel the opposition’s momentum into a well-organized national plan.

He stated that Kalonzo must strategically position himself for influence after the demise of the late Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

“Kalonzo Musyoka must convert the opposition momentum into a disciplined national strategy as he positions himself in the post-Raila political landscape,” Dr. Likaka added.

Also Read: Ruto’s Next Move: Will He Rejoin ODM to Succeed Raila?

Gachagua’s Assignment

Maimuna said Gachagua’s DCP party has made some inroads in its first elective contest.

She added that Gachagua should focus on strategies that rally his supporters and expand his campaign nationwide, rather than using rhetoric that could alienate potential followers.

“As for Gachagua, he has some minor inroads for the first time effort of his party. That he needs to focus more on rallying his troops to gather, following which can give him a win to, rather than too much rhetoric that might keep potential supporters away from his party,” Maimuna said.

Similarly, Dr. Likaka said Gachagua must repair political fractures in Mt. Kenya and rebuild his credibility if he hopes to remain relevant.

He added that the opposition must craft a smarter strategy, especially avoiding the mistake of fielding many candidates in the same race, which splits votes and hands easy wins to UDA.

Political Realignments

The analysts said the by-elections might trigger political realignments ahead of the 2027 election.

Dr. Likaka said the by-elections will trigger potential political realignments as leaders begin positioning themselves for 2027.

“Mt. Kenya remains the epicentre of shifting loyalties, with politicians likely to gravitate toward whichever coalition offers a convincing economic agenda and a path to power,” he said.

Maimuna said the political alignments are the order of the day in Kenya, regardless of the by-election.

However, she said Kenyans should watch how the opposition will organize themselves against the Broad-based government if it sustains itself come 2027.

Further, Dr. Likaka said Raila’s succession politics will reshape Azimio.

He said Kalonzo stands to benefit if he plays a unifying and strategic role as the new opposition kingpin.

“Ultimately, the winners will be those who read the public mood accurately, address the real concerns of voters, and commit to transparent, issue-based politics free of the bribery and manipulation that continue to stain our electoral landscape,” Likaka said.

Follow our WhatsApp Channel and WhatsApp Community for instant news updates

United opposition leaders during a past meeting. PHOTO/FILE.