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A new opinion poll indicates that President William Ruto would outperform Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, and former DP Rigathi Gachagua combined if elections were held today.
The poll conducted by Stats Kenya shows that President Ruto would easily win the presidency against the three Opposition leaders.
Stats Kenya results show that 23.4 percent of respondents would vote for President Ruto, placing him well ahead of his rivals.
Former Interior Cabinet Secretary (CS) Fred Matiang’i follows with 12.3 percent, while Kalonzo Musyoka garners 8.2 percent.
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna attracts 7.4 percent, with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua trailing at 4 percent.
This means that Kalonzo, Sifuna, and Gachagua combined would get 19.6% if elections were held today, behind Ruto.
However, the poll also reveals a fragmented electorate, with 29% of respondents still undecided, 7.4% refusing to disclose their choice, and 5.6% stating they would not vote or would not support any listed candidate.
“As the political scene gets hotter by the day, the Stats Kenya team is gearing up its polls, bringing clarity where there’s currently none,” the report states.
Prediction Markets Reinforce Ruto’s Lead
“We are also exploring the results from the Kenyan Prediction Market 5050 Markets to benchmark our polls and find truth,” Stats Kenya said.
Ruto is also backed by the Kenyan Prediction Market, 5050 Markets, which further solidifies his perceived edge in terms of popularity.
From the platform, he has 71% chances of winning in the next elections, as stated in a recent analysis.
“The prediction market tends to give more reliable results than a traditional poll because of the financial incentive, as traders tend to be more rational when trading on them,” according to the report.
However, it should be noted that the results can change as they depend on certain factors.
“We expect these markets to get tighter as more and more Kenyans get into prediction markets,” Stats Kenya report highlights.
Low Voter Registration Sparks Worry
The poll also shows a fundamental concern that will affect the result of the 2027 election: low voter registration.
It turns out that 57.4% of those surveyed have registered to vote, which means that 36.9% have not done so.
“There are still many adults in Kenya who have not registered to vote,” Stats states.
Steps are being taken to fix this problem as well.
Niko Kadi movement is focusing on the youth, and IEBC is implementing its ECVR program to increase voter numbers.
Also Read:IEBC Reforms Ahead of 2027: Restoring Credibility or Redrawing Kenya’s Political Battleground?
Public Confidence in Electoral Integrity Divided
Public trust in the electoral process remains mixed, according to the findings.
While 46.1% of respondents believe the 2027 election will be free and fair, 28.9% expressed doubts about the credibility of the process.
“Institutional trust in the elections and in the IEBC is essential if we are to run a successful electioneering period,” the report states.
“Without trust, emotions run high, and the chances of violence increase significantly,” the report warns.
Also Read:Kalonzo Speaks on Whether 2027 Will Be His Final Presidential Bid
Low Public Approval Rating of President Ruto
Even though President Ruto is showing early voting leads, the results for his approval rating are quite complicated.
According to the results, only 32% of the people support him, with 34% being against him.
This is in stark contrast to his election win last year, where he polled 50.49%.
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United opposition leaders during a past meeting. PHOTO/FILE.
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