Meteorologists Reveal June-September 2026 Rainfall Outlook for Kenya and Horn of Africa

Meteorologists from the Greater Horn of Africa have warned that many countries in the region are likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the June to September 2026 season.

The forecast was released by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) during the 73rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 73) held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from May 18 to 19, 2026.

The outlook was developed together with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and regional partners.

According to the forecast, most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa are expected to receive lower-than-normal rainfall during the June-September season, which is usually an important rainy season for agriculture and water resources.

Countries expected to be most affected include South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, and the western and coastal parts of Kenya.

Meteorologists said the highest chances of dry conditions are likely in northeastern and northwestern Ethiopia, southern Sudan, and northern Uganda, where the probability of below-normal rainfall is above 60 %

However, a few areas in northern Sudan, southeastern Ethiopia, and parts of Somalia may receive above-normal rainfall.

Some regions in Kenya and coastal Somalia are expected to record near-normal rainfall.

Horn of Africa Faces Possible Delayed Start of Rains 

The climate experts also warned that some areas could experience delayed rainfall onset.

Parts of South Sudan, Ethiopia, and southern Sudan are expected to receive rains later than usual, while a few localized regions in Ethiopia and central Sudan may experience normal or earlier rainfall onset.

The June-September season is critical for farming, livestock keeping, water supply, hydropower generation, food security, and public health across the region.

Also Read: Kenya Met Lists Regions to Experience Rainfall This Week

Temperatures Expected to Rise

The seasonal outlook also shows that most countries in the Greater Horn of Africa are likely to experience above-normal temperatures.

The highest chances of hotter-than-usual conditions are expected in Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, and parts of Tanzania.

Meteorologists noted that there are very low chances of below-normal temperatures across the region.

Acting Kenya Meteorological Department Director Edward Muriuki speaking at a past function. PHOTO/KMD

Conditions Similar to Strong El Niño Years

ICPAC said the evolving 2026 climate conditions closely resemble the strong El Niño years of 1997 and 2023.

During those years, several parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, and western Kenya recorded reduced rainfall during the June-September season.

Climate experts said the comparison with previous years can help governments and communities prepare early for possible impacts.

Also Read: Kenya Among Seven Countries to Face Dry Spell and High Temperatures

Leaders Call for Early Action

Speaking during the opening of GHACOF 73, IGAD Deputy Executive Secretary Mohamed Abdi Ware urged countries to move from issuing warnings to taking action.

“Across the region, we are increasingly shifting the conversation from ‘early warning’ to ‘early warning linked to anticipatory action,’ recognising that climate information must ultimately support action and preparedness to make a difference,” he said.

Director General of the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute, Fetene Teshome, called for stronger investment in climate services and regional cooperation.

“We must continue to invest in and expand systems capable of generating knowledge-based, user-tailored climate information at both the national and regional levels,” he said.

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Climate experts during the 73rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum in Addis Ababa. PHOTO/ICPAC