Kenya Met Reveals When October Short Rains Are Expected to Start

Edward Maina Muriuki is the Acting Director of Meteorological Services at the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). PHOTO/ File

The Kenya Meteorological Department (Kenya Met) has listed counties expected to receive above-average rainfall in October 2026, as the country enters the October-November-December (OND) short-rains season.

According to the October 2026 monthly forecast, above-average rainfall is likely in Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, Mandera and parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa and Wajir counties.

Kenya Met also expects above-average rainfall in Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos, Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Nyandarua and Nyeri.

Parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, Laikipia, Nakuru and Narok are also expected to receive above-average rainfall during the month.

The department forecasts near-average to above-average rainfall in Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Homa Bay, Kakamega, Kericho, Kisii, Kisumu, Migori, Nandi, Nyamira, Samburu, Siaya, Trans Nzoia, Turkana, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga and West Pokot.

Parts of Narok, Nakuru and Laikipia are also expected to experience near-average to above-average rainfall.

Kenya Met warned that several parts of the country could experience heavy rainfall events during October.

October-December Outlook

For the October-November-December 2026 season, Kenya Met expects above-average rainfall in several counties.

The forecast covers Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Embu, Garissa, Homa Bay, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kakamega, Kericho, Kiambu, Kilifi, Kirinyaga, Kisii, Kisumu, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Migori, Mombasa, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Siaya, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga and Wajir.

Much of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit is also expected to receive above-average rainfall.

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Meanwhile, Turkana and a few parts of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit are likely to experience near-average to above-average rainfall.

The department also expects mean temperatures to remain warmer than average during the three-month season, with higher probabilities of warmer conditions in Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and parts of Tana River, Taita Taveta and Garissa.

What Kenya Met Said About October Rains

Kenya Met said October marks the onset of the October-November-December short-rains season across much of Kenya.

The department attributed the seasonal transition to the southward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) across East Africa, which increases moisture and convection.

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October is particularly important for counties such as Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Murang’a, Embu and Busia, where the department’s climatological data show that rainfall during the month can exceed 200 millimetres.

Kenya Met said several climate and weather systems influence the duration and intensity of October rainfall, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).

Tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean and subtropical high-pressure systems can also influence rainfall patterns during the period.

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