Kenya Met Warns of El Niño Effects as Dry Spell and Heavy Rains Loom

The Kenya Meteorological Department (Kenya Met) has warned that a developing El Niño event will disrupt weather patterns across the country in 2026.

In a statement dated June 9, 2026, the department said the phenomenon will shift conditions from dry spells in the coming months to heavier rainfall later in the year, with impacts varying across regions.

“The Kenya Meteorological Department is closely monitoring global forecasts indicating the anticipated development of El Niño conditions in 2026, which could significantly influence weather patterns across the Country. Most models suggest the event will be at least moderate, and possibly strong,” Kenya Met stated.

Additionally, the department noted a high probability that El Niño will develop mid-year and persist through the end of 2026, raising concerns about its effects on agriculture, water resources, and disaster preparedness.

“While forecasts remain subject to change as new climate data becomes available, there is an 80-82% likelihood of El Niño during June–August 2026, with probabilities near or above 90-96% for it to continue through the end of 2026,” it added.

Also Read: Kenya on Alert as UN Predicts High Chance of El Niño

El Niño to Trigger Dry Conditions Mid-Year

During June, July, and August, much of the country will experience dry conditions, while western Kenya will record reduced rainfall.

However, conditions will begin to change as the year progresses.

“During October, November, and December, El Niño is generally associated with increased (enhanced) rainfall over the entire country,” Kenya Met further stated.

Meanwhile, the department indicated that the Indian Ocean Dipole currently remains neutral but may turn positive later in the year.

As a result, this shift could amplify rainfall during the October–December season.

“The combined effects of El Niño and a positive IOD significantly influence rainfall patterns over Kenya, potentially leading to enhanced rainfall during the October-November-December (OND) season,” the department said

Also Read: Kenya Met Issues Warning on Heavy Rains and Dropping Night Temperatures

Warmer Temperatures and Regional Variations

In its June–July–August forecast, the department projects near-average to below-average rainfall in the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, and north-western Kenya.

In contrast, the coastal region will likely receive near to above-average rainfall. At the same time, temperatures across most parts of the country will remain warmer than average.

Therefore, the department has urged Kenyans to stay updated through official weather advisories as conditions evolve, emphasizing the need for early preparedness and response measures.

Follow our WhatsApp channel for instant news updates

The Kenya Meteorological Department, in a statement issued on June 9, warns of a developing El Niño event that will bring dry conditions mid-year and heavier rainfall later in 2026. PHOTO/ KMD