Weatherman Warns of Hot, Dry September as Rainfall Declines

Kenya is set for a largely hot and dry September, with below-average rainfall expected in several parts of Western Kenya, the Rift Valley and the Lake Victoria basin.

According to Kenya Met, the September 2026 forecast indicates that temperatures will also remain warmer than average across the country, with northern and eastern parts of Kenya likely to experience the highest temperatures.

Several counties across Western Kenya, the Rift Valley and the Lake Victoria basin are expected to record below-average rainfall in September.

Parts of Narok, Nakuru, Baringo and Turkana are also likely to receive less rainfall than usual during the month.

Where Rainfall Is Expected

Coastal Kenya is likely to experience relatively wetter conditions compared with much of the country, with Lamu, Kilifi, Mombasa and Kwale forecast to receive near-average rainfall.

Parts of Tana River, Mandera, Wajir and Garissa could also record rainfall within the normal range.

Nairobi and much of the central and eastern regions are expected to remain generally sunny and dry, although occasional rainfall is possible.

Similar conditions are expected in Kajiado, Taita-Taveta, Marsabit and parts of Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Narok, Nakuru and Tana River.

Most parts of Isiolo, Turkana and Samburu are forecast to remain mainly sunny and dry.

Also Read: Nairobi, Kiambu and Central Kenya Counties Set to Experience Cool, Cloudy Weather

Temperatures to Remain Above Average

Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected throughout the country, with the highest readings likely in northern and northeastern Kenya.

Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo could record maximum temperatures of between 24°C and 39°C. Turkana and Samburu are expected to experience highs of between 22°C and 38°C.

Coastal counties will remain warm, with maximum temperatures ranging from 28°C to 32°C in Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, Kwale and the Tana Delta.

In Nairobi and parts of central Kenya, maximum temperatures are expected to range between 19°C and 31°C, while minimum temperatures could fall to as low as 5°C in Nyandarua and surrounding high-altitude areas.

September normally marks a transition from the relatively cool June-July-August period towards the warmer October-November-December rainfall season.

Temperatures are expected to be relatively cooler during the first half of September before becoming warmer later in the month.

Strong Winds Expected in Parts of Kenya

Strong southerly, southeasterly and easterly winds are expected intermittently during the first half of September.

Parts of Marsabit, Turkana, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera and Garissa are among the areas likely to experience the stronger winds. Similar conditions are forecast in parts of Tana River, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Taita-Taveta and the Coast.

Wind speeds could exceed 25 knots, or about 12.86 metres per second, in affected areas.

Dry Weather Could Affect Water and Pasture

Prolonged dry conditions could put additional pressure on water and pasture supplies in parts of the arid and semi-arid lands.

Isiolo, Garissa, Turkana, Baringo and West Pokot remain under drought stress, with the September conditions likely to contribute to reduced pasture and water availability. Livestock productivity and food security could also come under pressure in affected areas.

Also Read: Weatherman Lists Areas Set to Receive Rainfall as September Approaches

Farmers in counties expecting below-average rainfall may benefit from the predominantly dry conditions for harvesting, although prolonged dryness could create food, water and pasture shortages where previous months have already affected crops and livestock.

Dry weather may also increase dust and respiratory health concerns in parts of northern and eastern Kenya, while strong winds could worsen dust storms and eye irritation.

Motorists in central Kenya and Nairobi may need to exercise caution during periods of fog, which could reduce visibility. Fog may also occasionally affect operations at Wilson and Jomo Kenyatta International airports.

Weather Expected to Shift Later in the Season

September marks the start of the September-October-November outlook, with rainfall expected to increase in October and November.

Widespread rainfall, including localized heavy rainfall events, is expected to become more prominent in October and November, with several areas forecast to receive above-average rainfall during those months.

For September, however, the dominant picture remains sunny and dry conditions, below-average rainfall in several regions and warmer-than-average temperatures across the country.

The forecast also follows a largely dry August, when several parts of Kenya recorded below-average rainfall while temperatures remained warmer than usual.

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September outlook: Below-average rainfall expected in several parts of Kenya, with mostly sunny and warmer conditions expected across Kenya. PHOTO/ FILE.