Most ODM Supporters Back Sifuna as Ruto Remains Most Popular Presidential Candidate

President William Ruto remains the country’s most preferred presidential candidate if a general election were held today, while Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has emerged as the leading choice among Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) supporters, according to the latest TIFA opinion poll ahead of the 2027 elections.

The poll indicates that President William Ruto commands 24% national support for the presidency as of June 2026, followed by Edwin Sifuna at 15%.

Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka’s support has declined from 25% in November 2025 to 13%, placing him third.

Similarly, Jubilee Party Deputy Leader Fred Matiang’i’s support has declined from 32% in May to 14%.

Despite winning the Ol Kalou by-election, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is still ranked a distant fifth, with 7% support.

Embakasi East MP Babu Owino is also on the list with 2% support, despite declaring interest in the Nairobi gubernatorial race rather than the presidency.

Meanwhile, one in every five voters, or 20%, remains undecided.

The survey also found that about 18 to 20% of respondents remain undecided, highlighting that the race remains fluid nearly a year before the official campaign period begins.

Within ODM, however, the political landscape appears to be evolving.

The TIFA survey shows that more ODM supporters would back Sifuna than any other potential presidential contender if elections were held today.

Sifuna Solidifies ODM Base

Among the supporters of the ODM, Sifuna is the preferred candidate to run for the presidency.

Per the poll conducted, Sifuna has 44% of support from the party’s supporters to run for the presidency as against the 20% that have President Ruto’s name on their ballot.

Also, 13% are still undecided about whom to vote for.

These results come against the backdrop of the current rift within the Orange Democratic Movement over the arrangement that exists between President Ruto and the former prime minister Raila Odinga known as the Broad-Based Government.

Also Read:Ruto Appoints Defeated Ol Kalou UDA Candidate to Nairobi Rivers Commission

Per the results of the survey, 74% of the supporters of the ODM are members of the “Linda Mwananchi” group compared to the 20 percent that are members of the “Linda Ground” or “Tuko Tayari” group.

TIFA has noticed that the supporters of the “Linda Mwananchi” group keep on increasing among ODM supporters while the support for the Broad-Based Government affiliated group is decreasing.

Ruto Leads Nationally, But Only By 24%

Although Ruto leads nationally, his approval rating stands at 24%, which is said to be a low score according to TIFA, indicating a lot of room for the opposition if it manages to come up with a single candidate to lead them to victory.

According to the survey, Ruto enjoys massive backing in Northern Kenya and Central Rift, 61% and 49% respectively, although he is less popular in other opposition strongholds.

The survey indicated that the division of the opposition votes is currently Ruto’s biggest strength going into the next General Election.

“Whereas President Ruto is currently the most popular potential presidential candidate, his level of popularity at only one-quarter of Kenyans points to a large opportunity for the Opposition in next year’s election. However, the spread of support for his main opposition indicates how low their individual levels of support are outside their home regions,” TIFA stated.

Trends in history revealed by the survey also indicate that Ruto’s popularity has been fairly stable in recent months, Musyoka’s declining rapidly and that of Sifuna increasing.

According to TIFA, Sifuna’s popularity increased from 10% in May to 15% in June, 50% growth in one month’s time.

Also Read:Sifuna Alleges Safaricom Shut Down Linda Mwananchi Paybill ‘On Orders From Above’

Political Competition

Apart from the contest for presidency, the survey revealed ODM continues to be the leading party in Kenya’s political party affiliation with 20% followed by UDA at 17% while the DCP stands out as the rising star in the competition with 12% of support.

However, more than a quarter of the respondents indicated their inability to align with any political party.

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Dr. Tom Wolf, TIFA Research Analyst. PHOTO/ TIFA X.